The long overhang of bad decisions in agro-industrial development: Sugar and tomato paste in Ghana

In theory, learning from past mistakes should result in adapted and improved development policy. However policy learning can be difficult to achieve, and the link between learning and policy change is neither direct nor immediate. In this study we look at learning in agro-industrial policy in Ghana, by tracing the interest in sugar production and tomato processing over six decades. Specifically we ask why four failed factories established in the early 1960s have continued to play central roles in both policy and public discourse. Using policy documents, academic material, and the popular press, we show that Ghana’s policy focus on sugar production and tomato processing has endured, despite the fact that the factories were misconceived, poorly sited, ill-equipped and poorly managed. Indeed, the political ideas that underpinned the establishment of these factories in the early days of independence can be seen in the current One District, One Factory policy. We suggest that it is their symbolic and political value, not their economic value, which keeps the discussion around these factories alive. Even when shut down, they are a physical manifestation of historic commitments by the state, and as such they guarantee the attention of politicians, and hold out hope of a next re-launch. Unfortunately as long as the factories continue to be incorporated into each new generation of agro-industrial policy, it is difficult for any alternatives to gain traction. This analysis highlights the very long overhang of bad decisions, particularly when they are associated with physical infrastructure. Learning from past mistakes will only happen if the short-term political cost of turning policy learning into policy action can be overcome.     

工业体系和民营企业兴起——基于252家中国最大民营制造业企业的经验研究

主流经济学家把改革开放后民营企业的大规模兴起，主要归因为市场经济条件下发挥企业家精神和遵循比较优势的必然结果。但是这无法解释为什么民营企业在兴起之初就广泛和快速地进入到各个工业，尤其是技术和资本密集型工业。基于中国工业史和252家中国最大民营制造业企业创业发展史的历史证据，文章找回"工业体系"这一被主流所忽略的重大历史现象和学术概念，从而首次提出一种理解中国民营企业发展独特性的结构性解释。文章发现：从计划经济时期继承而来的门类齐全和独立完整的工业体系，是解释民营企业创业和发展独特性的关键变量；已有的由国有企业和科研院所组成的工业体系，从市场机会、技术能力和组织资源等方面塑造了民营企业的创业选择和发展路径。所以，中国民营企业的快速发展不是仅凭自由市场就会自动出现的普遍现象，而是在市场条件下充分利用工业体系提供的技术和市场条件才得以出现的特殊现象。     

试论人力资本的投资回报路径

人力资本与物质资本虽然在生产经营过程中关系密切,但由于两者的投入性质和方式不同,投资回报的性质和路径也不同。研究和区分人力资本与物质资本的不同投资回报路径,把握人力资本投资回报路径的特性,有利于政府在公共管理中推动人力资本的生成,有利于完善激励机制,发挥人力资本的潜能。     

区域系统主导产业决策分析中的准则层选择研究

当站在复杂性科学的高度来看待层次分析法时,可以将层次分析法归为一种基于个体属性的思维方法,其决策过程不具有整体思维,其得到的方案容易导致不和谐性。而现实中我们所分析的问题往往具有系统结构,这时我们应该超越个体属性的思维方法。本文在比较了社会网络分析和层次分析法的基础上,提出了依存属性这一概念,论述了基于依存属性的决策过程,这是对层次分析法的一种推广。     

基于我国货物出口轨迹及效应分析的出口贸易战略调整取向

改革开放以来,我国根据各个时期所处国际国内环境的变化,制定了不同的出口贸易发展战略,取得了举世瞩目的成就,从1981年到2005年六个五年计划期间,我国出口额增长了34倍,由世界32位成长为世界第三大贸易国。但根据六个五年计划的出口贸易轨迹来看,还存在一些问题,另外国际国内环境不断变化,需要我们调整贸易战略,以适应不同的环境,完成我国从贸易大国向贸易强国的转变。     

论经济新闻人才培养的路径创新

财经传媒热及大众媒体的“经济化”,使经济新闻及传媒人才走俏。财经院校依托经济管理的学科优势培养经济新闻人才,应寻求经济管理学科与新闻学之间的契合点,处理好一般新闻学课程与经济新闻类课程的衔接关系,并强化实践教学和就业方向,以突出经济新闻专业特色,力戒“泛化”、“软化”和“硬化”。     

新疆劳动参与率偏低的原因分析

本文通过对新疆和全国劳动参与率的比较分析,得出新疆地区的劳动参与率明显低于全国水平,并对此产生的原因作了简要分析。除了各种宏观经济因素外,与新疆地区推行特殊的少数民族生育政策而带来的高幼儿扶养比和该地区传统的小富则安缺乏竞争意识的思想观念也有很大关系。     

路径依赖对财政政策变迁的规范作用

财政政策作为一种政府主导的制度安排,其变迁的方向不是随机的,而是存在着路径依赖。当财政政策变迁存在着报酬递增和自我强化机制时,路径依赖就会对其产生规范作用。在一定程度上,财政政策的恰当性会进一步加强路径依赖的这种规范性作用。研究路径依赖对财政政策变迁的规范作用,对于推动我国财政政策的良性循环与变迁具有重要意义。     

Nonlinear IV unit root tests in panels with cross-sectional dependency

We propose a unit root test for panels with cross-sectional dependency. We allow general dependency structure among the innovations that generate data for each of the cross-sectional units. Each unit may have different sample size, and therefore unbalanced panels are also permitted in our framework. Yet, the test is asymptotically normal, and does not require any tabulation of the critical values. Our test is based on nonlinear IV estimation of the usual augmented Dickey–Fuller type regression for each cross-sectional unit, using as instruments nonlinear transformations of the lagged levels. The actual test statistic is simply defined as a standardized sum of individual IV t-ratios. We show in the paper that such a standardized sum of individual IV t-ratios has limit normal distribution as long as the panels have large individual time series observations and are asymptotically balanced in a very weak sense. We may have the number of cross-sectional units arbitrarily small or large. In particular, the usual sequential asymptotics, upon which most of the available asymptotic theories for panel unit root models heavily rely, are not required. Finite sample performance of our test is examined via a set of simulations, and compared with those of other commonly used panel unit root tests. Our test generally performs better than the existing tests in terms of both finite sample sizes and powers. We apply our nonlinear IV method to test for the purchasing power parity hypothesis in panels.     

商业模式本质与构建路径探讨

目前，学术界对于商业模式的定义和应包含的要素始终没有统一的认识。界定商业模式与企业战略之间的内在联系，研究商业模式设计的步骤和程序，以价值链分析方法为主线，拓展和延伸出在新的商业生态系统环境下更为适用的分析方法和商业模式设计建构的框架和路径，具有重要价值。